Another quarterly report on trends in major property markets is out.
Knight Frank has released another quarterly report on trends in major property markets in 56 countries Global house price growth is accelerating.
Overall, house prices in our 56-country basket rose 3.3% over the previous 12 months to the end of June this year, with prices rising 1.9% in the last three months alone.
GROWTH ACCELERATES
While the current annual growth rate of 3.3% remains below the pre-crisis trend of 4.6%, growth has continued since reaching a trough in Q2 2023. On a quarterly basis, growth of 1.9% is significantly higher than the pre-crisis average of 1.1%. This points to overall market strengthening, with 74% of markets seeing price growth in the last three months, the highest in two years.
GROWTH MARKETS
Turkey leads our index with nominal annual price growth of 46.4%. However, with the economy experiencing a second round of very high inflation, prices are falling by around 14% per year in inflation-adjusted real terms. Poland is second with price growth of 18%. Strong population growth and the recent Safe Credit mortgage subsidy program have helped push prices up amid an ongoing structural housing shortage.
PROBLEM MARKETS
Hong Kong is at the bottom of our table with prices down 12.7%, although prices have remained flat over the last quarter, indicating the potential success of the recent easing of purchase restrictions and stamp duties. Mainland China is struggling to grow, with prices down 5.2% over the last year. This decline comes despite various government support measures. Some recent market improvements in cities like Shanghai offer hope for a broader recovery, but it will likely be gradual at best.
RECURRING MARKETS
The U.S. market continues to post strong growth, up 5.5% year-on-year. Some of this growth is due to falling mortgage rates, but much of it is the result of strong household formation and a limited supply of housing. This problem is exacerbated by the very low long-term rates that existing owners benefit from and the lack of market liquidity this has created in the U.S. Rates will need to fall further before sales volumes begin to normalize. “Lower rates are supporting rising home prices around the world. The pace of this growth will be limited by the pace of central bank activity as well as government intervention, which, as we have seen in mainland China, Hong Kong and Poland, is becoming a much more active area of policy. Regulators are trying to expand access to markets and increase housing construction.
SLOVENIA
As you can see in the table, Slovenia is in 15th place in the rating with the following indicators: annual growth in real estate prices – 6.7%, real estate has increased in price over a 6-month period – 3.4% and over the last 3 months – 2.2%.
Global house price growth is accelerating. Source: https://content.knightfrank.com/research/84/documents/en/global-house-price-index-q2-2024-11577.pdf
