Background, analysis and forecast for the Slovenian real estate market in 2023

Slovenian real estate market in 2023. No surprises.

Yesterday, today, tomorrow

Core Inflation Rate in Slovenia averaged 2.54 percent from 2001 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 8.95 percent in January of 2002 and a record low of -0.80 percent in March of 2021. Source: http://pxweb.stat.si/

Core Inflation Rate in Slovenia is expected to be 8.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Slovenia Core Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 3.60 percent in 2023 and 2.60 percent in 2024, according to https://tradingeconomics.com econometric models. Thus, we hope that the 2022 price rally will slow down and we will be able to reach a plateau in the economy.

Interest rate

The benchmark interest rate in Slovenia is set by the European Central Bank. Interest Rate in Slovenia is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Slovenia Interest Rate is projected to trend around 3.50 percent in 2023 and 2.75 percent in 2024, according to our econometric models. High interest rates do not make loans attractive for both individuals and market participants.

Real estate value

Housing Index in Slovenia averaged 120.18 points from 2007 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 172.56 points in the second quarter of 2022 and a record low of 97.77 points in the third quarter of 2014. Housing Index in Slovenia increased to 172.56 points in the second quarter of 2022 from 166.78 points in the first quarter of 2022. Source http://www.stat.si/

Despite high interest rates, the real estate market looks stable, no plateau is yet in sight. The forecast also shows that the Slovenian market looks more stable than, for example, the German real estate market.

Conclusions

Taking into account many factors, we can say that nothing threatens the Slovenian real estate market for a few years. The market is stable, there is little potential for growth.